$1.15M
1
5
$1.15M
1
5
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page (https://yaps.kaito.ai/infomarkets) at any point between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at https://yaps.kaito.ai/infomarkets, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Da
Prediction markets are pricing in near certainty that Polymarket will achieve a 70% daily mindshare threshold. The leading market, "Will Polymarket mindshare hit 70%?", is trading at 100 cents (100%), indicating traders believe this outcome is virtually guaranteed. This price reflects the expectation that Polymarket will dominate the information markets arena, capturing over two-thirds of the tracked attention during the measurement window from November 20, 2025, to March 31, 2026.
The extreme confidence is driven by Polymarket's established dominance and recent growth trajectory. As the largest real-money prediction market platform, it consistently commands the lion's share of trading volume, media coverage, and user engagement within the crypto-native prediction space. The benchmark for resolution, the Kaito Information Markets Arena, tracks relative social and data platform mentions. Polymarket's mindshare has likely been on a sustained upward trend, buoyed by major event markets and increasing mainstream recognition of prediction markets as a tool for forecasting. The 70% threshold may already be within reach based on recent historical data from the tracker, making the market a bet on the continuation of an existing trend rather than a new breakthrough.
While the market sees minimal risk, the primary factor that could theoretically impact the odds is a significant, sustained challenge from a competitor. A rival platform, such as Manifold or Kalshi, could launch a series of massively popular markets or secure a major partnership that diverts attention and discussion. Additionally, a regulatory action or platform outage affecting Polymarket during the critical four-month measurement window could temporarily suppress its mindshare metrics. However, given the high liquidity and 100% price, traders collectively view these scenarios as highly improbable, betting instead on Polymarket's network effects and first-mover advantage to maintain overwhelming dominance through Q1 2026.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on measuring Polymarket's growing influence within the information markets ecosystem through a specific metric called 'mindshare.' The market will resolve based on whether Polymarket achieves at least a specified daily mindshare percentage, as tracked on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page, at any point between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, Eastern Time. Mindshare, in this context, represents the relative attention and discussion volume a platform commands compared to its competitors within a defined niche, specifically the prediction market and information markets space. The Kaito platform aggregates and analyzes social media and online discourse to generate these daily percentage values, providing a quantitative measure of brand dominance and cultural relevance. This market essentially bets on whether Polymarket can reach a critical threshold of public and trader consciousness during this nearly five-month observation window, serving as a proxy for its competitive standing and mainstream adoption. Interest in this metric stems from Polymarket's rapid ascent as a leading blockchain-based prediction market, its regulatory challenges, and the broader growth of the information markets sector. Traders and observers are using this market to gauge whether Polymarket can sustain or amplify its position as a central hub for event-based trading and speculative discourse, especially against emerging competitors and in the face of evolving regulatory landscapes. The outcome is seen as a bellwether for the platform's marketing effectiveness, community engagement, and overall health within a rapidly evolving digital finance subculture.
The concept of measuring 'mindshare' in tech and finance has roots in brand marketing analytics, but its application to crypto-native platforms gained traction in the early 2020s with the rise of on-chain analytics firms. Polymarket itself launched in 2020, quickly becoming a focal point for event-based trading on politics and current affairs. A pivotal historical event was the CFTC's settlement with Polymarket in January 2021, which included a fine and required the platform to wind down markets accessible to U.S. users. This regulatory action generated immense discussion, arguably creating an early, forced peak in mindshare as the crypto and trading communities debated the future of prediction markets. Following this, Polymarket continued to operate for non-U.S. users and saw steady growth, with notable mindshare spikes surrounding major geopolitical events like the 2022 U.S. midterm elections and the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where it served as a real-time sentiment indicator. The launch of analytics platforms like Kaito AI, which began formally tracking and publishing comparative mindshare metrics for information markets around 2023, provided the standardized, daily data feed that made prediction markets like this one possible. This created a precedent for quantifying what was previously qualitative brand awareness, turning social volume into a tradable asset.
The outcome of this market matters because it serves as a leading indicator of Polymarket's viability and cultural penetration. A high and sustained mindshare suggests the platform is successfully navigating regulatory hurdles, retaining user engagement, and potentially onboarding new traders. This can influence investor confidence, affect the valuation of the underlying POLY token if applicable, and signal the health of the broader decentralized prediction market sector. Conversely, a declining mindshare could indicate competitive displacement, waning interest, or operational challenges, potentially foreshadowing a reduction in liquidity and platform utility. Beyond the platform itself, this metric reflects the maturation of the information markets industry. A successful Polymarket demonstrates a public appetite for speculative tools tied to real-world events, which could encourage further innovation and investment in the space. It also highlights the growing sophistication of crypto analytics, where social metrics are becoming formalized and integrated into financial products. The traders, developers, and regulators watching this space all have a stake in understanding whether a major platform like Polymarket can achieve and maintain a dominant mind, as it validates or challenges their approaches to this emerging field.
As of late 2024, Polymarket operates as a leading blockchain-based prediction market platform, though access remains restricted for users in the United States following the CFTC settlement. The platform continues to list markets on major political, economic, and cultural events, driving periodic surges in user activity and discussion. The Kaito Information Markets Arena page is live and provides historical daily mindshare data, establishing the baseline trends leading into the 2025-2026 observation period. The broader regulatory environment for crypto and prediction markets remains in flux, with ongoing legislative discussions that could impact Polymarket's operations and, consequently, its public mindshare. Traders are currently monitoring Polymarket's performance through the 2024 U.S. election cycle as a potential indicator of its ability to capture attention during high-stakes events.
Mindshare, in this context, is a percentage representing the relative volume of online discussion and attention a platform receives compared to its direct competitors within the information markets niche. Kaito AI measures this by aggregating and analyzing data from social media platforms, forums, news sites, and other online sources to quantify mentions and sentiment related to each platform.
The official source for the market's resolution is the Kaito Information Markets Arena page at yaps.kaito.ai/infomarkets. This page displays a chart with historical daily values for Polymarket and its competitors, which will be used to determine if the specified threshold is met during the observation period.
While coordinated social media campaigns could theoretically create artificial spikes, Kaito AI's methodology is designed to filter noise and analyze genuine discussion across a wide array of sources. Furthermore, the market requires the threshold to be met on a finalized daily value, making sustained manipulation difficult over the 4.5-month period.
The market terms specify that resolution depends on the data shown on the Kaito page. If the page is unavailable, the resolution would likely rely on the most recent cached or archived data available, as per standard prediction market procedures for external data sources. The integrity of the data feed is a known risk factor.
This market bets on brand attention and discussion share, not direct financial activity. While trading volume and mindshare often correlate, they are distinct metrics. A platform can have high mindshare during a regulatory scandal with low trading, or high volume from a few large traders with little public discussion.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 100% |
| Poly | 54% |
| Poly | 19% |
| Poly | 10% |
| Poly | 6% |
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