Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The two events ask different questions. The Kalshi event resolves Yes if the named actor is on the nominee list for Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series at the 32nd Critics Choice Awards [1]. Nominees are expected to be announced on December 4, 2026 [1]. The Polymarket event asks which listed actor wins Best Supporting Actor at the 99th Academy Awards. An actor who is not nominated when the 2027 nominees are announced resolves to "No" [2]. A tie goes to "the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order," and if no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [2].

Listed close times also differ. Kalshi's market records show 2028-01-03T15:00:00.000Z, while its event excerpt lists no end time [1]. Polymarket's records show 2027-07-01T03:59:00.000Z for most actors and 2027-03-14T23:59:00.000Z for two [2]. These are listed close fields, not announced event dates.

Reading the snapshot

The Kalshi data was observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and the Polymarket data at the same time, and both were retrieved later that day [1][2]. These are prices from that moment, not live or executable quotes. Kalshi's sample includes 12 of 15 markets for its event, and Polymarket's includes 12 of 26 [1][2].

Within the Kalshi sample, Stephen Root has the highest Yes price at 0.83, followed by Paul W. Downs at 0.73 [1]. Within the Polymarket sample, Andrew Garfield has the highest Yes price at 0.29, followed by Paul Giamatti at 0.25 [2]. Colman Domingo appears in both samples, at 0.385 for the Critics Choice nomination market and at 0.033 for the Oscars win market [1][2].

Do not combine these rankings. The Kalshi figures describe nominations and the Polymarket figures describe wins, so they are separate questions. Omitted markets are not shown to be cheaper, and differences between platforms do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or what recent reporting says. Volume and liquidity are not supplied, so these prices cannot be treated as executable. Both samples are partial, so the full field is unknown. The nomination and ceremony dates cited in the rules are scheduled or expected dates, not confirmed outcomes [1][2]. Neither contract has resolved in this snapshot.

References

1. Kalshi: Critics Choice Award Nominations: Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
2. Polymarket: Oscars 2027: Best Supporting Actor Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.