This prediction market topic addresses the possibility of a coup attempt in Ukraine occurring before June 30, 2026. A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government. The question arises within the context of Ukraine's ongoing, full-scale war with Russia, which began with the invasion in February 2022. This conflict has placed immense strain on Ukraine's political institutions, military command, and social cohesion, creating an environment where internal power struggles could theoretically manifest. Interest in this topic stems from analyzing Ukraine's stability as a wartime state, historical patterns of political upheaval in the region, and the strategic implications for European security and the broader conflict with Russia. Observers monitor factors such as military morale, political unity in Kyiv, and the potential for Russian influence operations designed to destabilize Ukraine from within.

Historical Context

Ukraine's modern political history includes significant episodes of internal upheaval, setting a precedent that informs current analysis. The Orange Revolution of 2004 2005 was a series of protests and political events that overturned a fraudulent presidential election, demonstrating the power of mass mobilization. More directly relevant is the Revolution of Dignity, or Euromaidan, in 2013 2014. This revolution led to the ousting of pro Russian President Viktor Yanukovych after violent clashes between protesters and state security forces. These events were followed by Russia's annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of war in the Donbas. Since the full scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine has operated under martial law, which centralizes authority. Historically, successful coups often exploit periods of national crisis, military setbacks, or political fragmentation. While Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, its history shows that rapid political change is possible, though past revolutions were largely driven by popular protest rather than classic military coups.

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