Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

Name: Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$8.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $8.85K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.85K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?	Poly	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$8.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or gener

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 30, 2026 (74 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or gener

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.86)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $8.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

73d 18h remaining

Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

4¢

Polymarket

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Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

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Ukraine coup attempt by June 30?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)