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Event GroupPOLYMARKETScience

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Name: 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
End: 2026-06-10T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$751.25

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Vol

$751.25

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $751.25

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $751.25

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?	Poly	45%
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?	Poly	41%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?	Poly	36%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?	Poly	24%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$751.25

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
**Category:** Science | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jun 10, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. 

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. 

Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The pri"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $751
* **Total Liquidity:** $798
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.94)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $751
  DATA: [Yes: 44.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 10, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETScience