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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Name: Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.49M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?

Vol

$1.49M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.49M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.49M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	75%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	16%
Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	3%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	2%
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	1%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$1.49M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, July 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (170 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.21M
* **Total Liquidity:** $64.1K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 18.93)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $32.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $141.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $58.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $83.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.3% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $548.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $181.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $41.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $113.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture