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Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

Name: Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?
End: 2026-02-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$101.95K

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Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

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Polymarket

markets · $101.95K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $101.95K

100%

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1 market tracked

Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?	Poly	30%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 5, 2026 (21 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female categ

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $102.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.9K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 35.61)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?
- **Polymarket** (End: Feb 5, 2026): Vol $102.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

20d 15h remaining

Feb 05, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

30¢

Polymarket

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/nSwCXZ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?"></iframe>

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Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

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Transgender women be banned from the Olympics before Winter Games?

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Events (1)