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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

Name: Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?
End: 2026-01-30T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.56K

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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

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Volume DistributionTotal: $19.56K

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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

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Market	Platform	Price
Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?	Poly	4%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Federal Judge Kate Menendez is hearing arguments on January 26 in a case over the legality of the Trump Administration’s Operation Metro Surge, which sent around 3,000 additional immigration agents to the state of Minnesota (see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-send-border-czar-homan-minnesota-2026-01-26/).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a federal judge issues an order to halt, stop, pause, or enjoin Operation Metro Surge by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market wil

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $949
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 20.62)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 30, 2026): Vol $19.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Average Yes Price

4¢

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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

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Federal Judge rules against Operation Metro Surge by Friday?

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