Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Total Volume

$2.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Vol

$2.29K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.29K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.29K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	99%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	97%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	95%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	87%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	72%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 6000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	63%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 8000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	49%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 10000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	37%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 12000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	27%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 14000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	20%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 16000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	15%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 18000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	11%
Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 20000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

99%

Top Probability

$2.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Carnaval De Luz | November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above X streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metrics which does n

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Carnaval De Luz | November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026

If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above X streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on the Sunday immediately following the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week. Luminate Data, LLC is a neutral provider of market metrics which does n

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above 8M streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 8000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 6000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 20000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $300
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 18000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $525
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 16000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $325
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 14000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $520
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 12000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $25
  DATA: [Yes: 99.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 1.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 10000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 26, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Volume$2.29K

Markets13

13 of 13

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above 1M streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on

KALSHI

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above 2M streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on

KALSHI

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above 3M streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on

KALSHI

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above 4M streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on

KALSHI

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

If Carnaval De Luz by U2 has above 5M streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026, tracking week, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: IMPORTANT INFORMATION: This event pertains to the U.S. and will resolve based on the value reported by Luminate’s API as of 10:00 AM ET on

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

52¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/nT9y0G" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Markets (13)

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Carnaval De Luz: First Week Streams

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 1000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 2000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 3000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 4000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Will Carnaval De Luz by U2 have above 5000000 streams during the November 13, 2026 - November 19, 2026 tracking week?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget