Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T18:00:06.916Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The market is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The contract therefore depends on a time-averaged Chainlink feed, not on a spot price from an exchange. A reader comparing this with another Bitcoin contract should check whether that contract uses the same data source, averaging method, and time window before comparing outcomes.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is timestamped 2026-11-01T18:00:06.916Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T18:09:04.333Z [1]. These times describe when the data was collected, not the current market state. The provider status was recorded as "active," with a listed end time of 2026-11-02T03:20:00.000Z [1].
The saved quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved data does not include order book depth, trade history, or volume, so this record cannot show liquidity or how many participants are active.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that event: one market in total, one included, with no partial sample [1]. This does not show that the provider lists every possible outcome for this kind of question, and no other contracts are compared here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were at these levels, and it does not describe any events or news that may have affected them. It also does not show how the saved prices have changed over time.
The title gives the window in ET, while the listed end time is recorded in UTC. The evidence does not show how these were reconciled, so readers should confirm the exact window against the provider before relying on it.
Finally, the observation time, retrieval time, listed end time, and actual resolution are four separate facts. The evidence here does not show the final result.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T18:00:06.916Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window crypto price contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET," listed on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price will be higher or lower over a five-minute window, measured with a specific oracle feed rather than with general market prices. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the source identifies as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink feed for the BTC/USD pair, and not the price on any other source or spot market [1]. This means that a move on a particular exchange, or a different average, does not by itself determine the outcome. The rule turns on the averaged value in the named feed. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T03:20:00.000Z, and the provider lists the market as active [1]. That end time is when the contract window closes under the listing. It is not a record of how the market finally settled, and this entry does not report a settlement result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a short, defined window, as recorded in one named oracle feed [1]. Because the outcome depends on a time-weighted average and not on a single trade or quote, the rule separates this contract from questions about where Bitcoin trades in general. Readers should check the resolution feed and the listed end time before interpreting any price for this contract [1]. The contract's rules also state that the outcome is limited to that Chainlink data stream, so a price on another venue is not the measure used here [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated time range with the price at the start of that range. If the average is greater than or equal to the starting price, it resolves Up. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used to resolve the market?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the source describes as the 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The source says the market is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the listed contract window end?
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T03:20:00.000Z [1]. This is the scheduled end of the listing, not a report of how the contract settled.
Do the prices shown for this contract indicate the likely outcome?
Contract prices are snapshots of a market at a point in time, and this entry does not treat them as verified probabilities or as executable quotes. The source material provided for this entry describes the rules and listing status, and it does not establish what the price implies about the result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.