Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

Total Volume

$5.36K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

Vol

$5.36K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.36K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.36K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

13 markets tracked

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?	Kalshi	92%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?	Kalshi	87%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?	Kalshi	77%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?	Kalshi	69%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?	Kalshi	58%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.00%?	Kalshi	57%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.25%?	Kalshi	48%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.50%?	Kalshi	35%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.75%?	Kalshi	25%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.00%?	Kalshi	17%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.25%?	Kalshi	12%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.75%?	Kalshi	7%
Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 10.00%?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$5.36K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2027 If the 30-Yr FRM is above X in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average; subsequent revisions are excluded. X reading equal to the strike does not qualify. The market may close and expire early if a qualifying reading exceeds the strike. This market will clo

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2027

If the 30-Yr FRM is above X in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey, PMMS, release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average; subsequent revisions are excluded. X reading equal to the strike does not qualify. The market may close and expire early if a qualifying reading exceeds the strike. This market will clo

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the 30-Yr FRM is above 9.75% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $898
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $670
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $646
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $889
  DATA: [Yes: 17.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $660
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $283
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $33
  DATA: [Yes: 47.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 8.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $783
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 77.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 23.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 86.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 13.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 10.00%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 6, 2028): Vol $500
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

Volume$5.36K

Markets13

13 of 13

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.00% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fi

KALSHI

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.25% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fi

KALSHI

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.50% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fi

KALSHI

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 7.75% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fi

KALSHI

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?

If the 30-Yr FRM is above 9.50% in any Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) release published in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only PMMS releases published from January 1 through December 31, 2027, inclusive, count. The market uses the initially published weekly 30-year fi

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45¢

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How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

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Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

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Events (1)

How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

Markets (13)

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?

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Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How high will the 30-year mortgage rate get in 2027?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.00%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.25%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.50%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 7.75%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?

Will the 30-Yr FRM in 2027 go above 9.50%?

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