Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Total Volume

$11.08K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Vol

$11.08K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $11.08K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $11.08K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	31%
Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	24%
Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	22%
Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	14%
Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Roberto Gualtieri become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Paolo Gentiloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Ernesto Maria Ruffini become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Antonio Tajani become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%
Will Antonio Decaro become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$11.08K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Dec 22, 2028 If X becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/le

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Dec 22, 2028

If X becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Prime Minister according to the country's constitutional procedures, commands the confidence of the parliament/le

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Roberto Vannacci becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a resul"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $11.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $600
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $891
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Roberto Gualtieri become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Paolo Gentiloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $696
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gaetano Manfredi become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $690
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $995
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Ernesto Maria Ruffini become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $689
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Antonio Tajani become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $686
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Antonio Decaro become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 22, 2028): Vol $651
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Volume$11.08K

Markets11

11 of 11

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.5¢No 69.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

If Giorgia Meloni becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result

KALSHI

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.0¢No 76.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

If Elly Schlein becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of

KALSHI

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

If Giuseppe Conte becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result

KALSHI

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.0¢No 86.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

If Roberto Vannacci becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a resul

KALSHI

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.0¢No 98.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

If Silvia Salis becomes Prime Minister of Italy as a result of government formation following the next Italian general election and meets all constitutional requirements before Dec 22, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

9¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/nYumg6" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Markets (11)

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will become Prime Minister of Italy following the next general election?

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giorgia Meloni become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Elly Schlein become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Giuseppe Conte become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Roberto Vannacci become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Will Silvia Salis become Prime Minister of Italy following the next Italian general election?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget