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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Kash Patel out by...?

Name: Kash Patel out by...?
End: 2026-02-23T18:19:41.837Z

Total Volume

$1.03M

Events

Markets

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Kash Patel out by...?

Vol

$1.03M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.03M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.03M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Kash Patel out by December 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Kash Patel out by December 31?	Poly	67%
Kash Patel out by June 30?	Poly	41%
Kash Patel out by May 31?	Poly	21%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

67%

Top Probability

$1.03M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administrati

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, July 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Kash Patel out by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Feb 23, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administrati

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $455.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $155.6K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.93)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Kash Patel out by June 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jun 30, 2026): Vol $248.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Kash Patel out by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $63.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Kash Patel out by December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $142.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 33.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kash Patel out by...?

Volume$1.03M

Markets3

3 of 3

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POLYMARKET

Kash Patel out by December 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 67.0¢No 33.0¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kash Patel out by December 31?

POLYMARKET

Kash Patel out by June 30?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kash Patel out by June 30?

POLYMARKET

Kash Patel out by May 31?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Kash Patel out by May 31?

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43¢

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Kash Patel out by December 31?

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Events (1)

Kash Patel out by...?

Markets (3)

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Kash Patel out by May 31?

Kash Patel out by May 31?

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Kash Patel out by December 31?

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Kash Patel out by...?

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Kash Patel out by December 31?

Kash Patel out by June 30?

Kash Patel out by June 30?

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