Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Venezuela crude oil production in September

Total Volume

$2.67K

Events

Markets

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Venezuela crude oil production in September

Vol

$2.67K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.67K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.67K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?	Kalshi	98%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?	Kalshi	98%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?	Kalshi	97%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?	Kalshi	63%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?	Kalshi	20%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.3M bpd?	Kalshi	3%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.4M bpd?	Kalshi	2%
Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.5M bpd?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$2.67K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least X bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources, as shown in the OPEC crude oil production table. OPEC reports this figure in thousand barrels per day, tb/d; for purposes of this market, 800K bpd equals 800 tb/d and 1.0M bpd equals 1,000 tb/d. Venezuela’s

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Venezuela crude oil production in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September

If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least X bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources, as shown in the OPEC crude oil production table. OPEC reports this figure in thousand barrels per day, tb/d; for purposes of this market, 800K bpd equals 800 tb/d and 1.0M bpd equals 1,000 tb/d. Venezuela’s 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 900K bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $254
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $153
  DATA: [Yes: 98.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.5M bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.4M bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.3M bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $231
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $226
  DATA: [Yes: 20.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 63.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Venezuela crude oil production in September

Volume$2.67K

Markets8

8 of 8

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KALSHI

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 900K bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources

KALSHI

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 98.0¢No 2.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?

If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 800K bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources

KALSHI

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHITech

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?

If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 1.0M bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources

KALSHI

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 63.0¢No 37.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?

If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 1.1M bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources

KALSHI

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.0¢No 80.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?

If Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September is at least 1.2M bpd, as reported in the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published after the reference month, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is Venezuela’s crude oil production based on secondary sources

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Venezuela crude oil production in September

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Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

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Events (1)

Venezuela crude oil production in September

Markets (8)

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?

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Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Venezuela crude oil production in September

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 900K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 800K bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.0M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.1M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?

Will Venezuela’s average daily crude oil production for September be at least 1.2M bpd?

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