$153.78K
1
17
$153.78K
1
17
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 1, 2027 If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake X before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the thre
The prediction market is currently pricing in a low probability that the US federal government will take an equity stake in any company before 2027. The leading sub-market, focusing specifically on aerospace giant Boeing, trades at just 26% on Kalshi. This price indicates the market views direct government equity ownership as unlikely, though not impossible. The aggregate volume of $154,000 across 17 related markets suggests moderate trader interest, reflecting the significant policy and financial implications of such an event.
The low probability is primarily driven by historical precedent and political constraints. The US government has historically been extremely reluctant to take direct, permanent equity stakes in private corporations outside of extreme crises, as seen with the temporary Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) holdings after the 2008 financial crisis. A deliberate stake-taking would represent a major shift toward industrial policy or nationalization, facing substantial legal and legislative hurdles. For a specific company like Boeing, while it is a systemically important defense contractor, current support mechanisms like loans or procurement contracts are seen as far more likely tools than equity ownership.
The odds could rise significantly in response to a severe, sector-wide financial crisis that threatens national security or critical infrastructure, where bailouts with equity could be framed as the only option. A dramatic, company-specific failure of a "too big to fail" entity in aerospace, finance, or technology could also force the government's hand. Furthermore, a shift in the political landscape after the 2024 elections toward more interventionist economic policies could increase the perceived probability. Any move by a regulatory body like the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to block a foreign acquisition on national security grounds, potentially leading to a government-backed alternative involving an equity stake, would be a major catalyst.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic addresses whether the United States federal government will acquire equity stakes in private companies before January 1, 2027. The resolution criteria define 'taking a stake' as acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests, including indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. This encompasses scenarios ranging from strategic national investments to financial interventions during crises. The topic has gained prominence due to evolving economic policies, national security concerns regarding critical industries, and debates over the appropriate role of government in private markets. Recent legislative acts, such as the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, have created new mechanisms and funding for federal investments in strategic sectors like semiconductors and clean energy. Interest in this topic stems from its implications for industrial policy, economic sovereignty, and the potential reshaping of market dynamics between the state and private enterprise.
The U.S. government has a long, albeit episodic, history of taking equity stakes in private companies, primarily during national emergencies. The most significant modern precedent is the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) enacted in October 2008 during the global financial crisis. Through TARP, the Treasury Department invested approximately $245 billion in hundreds of banks, acquiring preferred stock and warrants. The government took a 79.9% equity stake in American International Group (AIG) and significant positions in automakers General Motors and Chrysler. These stakes were generally unwound by 2014, with the government recording an overall profit on the bank investments but losses on AIG and the automakers. Earlier, during World War I, the U.S. government nationalized the railroad industry, and during World War II, it made direct investments in war production companies through the Defense Plant Corporation. The Cold War era saw indirect support through agencies like DARPA, but direct equity stakes were rare outside of crisis response until recent policy shifts.
The potential for increased federal equity ownership represents a significant shift in U.S. economic policy, moving from a traditionally regulatory and subsidy-based approach to a more direct, interventionist model of 'industrial policy.' This matters because it concentrates economic power and risk within the government, potentially crowding out private investment or distorting market competition if not carefully managed. It raises profound questions about corporate governance, as a government shareholder may prioritize political or strategic objectives over pure profit maximization. For companies, accepting a government stake can mean access to crucial capital and contracts but also comes with strings attached, including potential oversight, domestic production requirements, and restrictions on certain business activities. The broader significance lies in the global economic competition, particularly with China, where state-led investment is a core strategy. The U.S. adopting similar tools signals a new phase of geoeconomic rivalry where national security and economic policy are deeply intertwined.
As of late 2024, the primary mechanism for potential new federal equity stakes is the implementation of the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. The Department of Commerce is actively negotiating CHIPS Act awards with semiconductor companies. While most publicized deals involve grants, the legislation allows for alternative financing structures. The Department of Energy is similarly deploying loans and grants for clean energy projects under the Inflation Reduction Act. There is ongoing policy debate about expanding the use of equity instruments, such as warrants or direct investments, to ensure taxpayers share in the upside of companies receiving substantial federal support. No new large-scale, crisis-driven equity interventions akin to TARP have occurred recently, but the administrative and legal frameworks for such actions remain in place.
A grant is a direct monetary award that does not require repayment or confer ownership. Taking an equity stake involves the government receiving an ownership share in the company, such as stock or warrants, which gives it a claim on future profits and potential voting rights.
Yes, the federal government has the legal authority to nationalize industries or specific companies, typically under emergency powers during wartime or a severe national crisis. This is distinct from taking a partial stake, as it involves acquiring full ownership and control.
Overall, the Treasury Department's programs to invest in banks through the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) generated a direct profit. The Congressional Budget Office estimated a net gain of approximately $31 billion for the government from all TARP transactions by the end of 2021.
A warrant is a financial instrument that gives the holder, in this case the government, the right to purchase a company's stock at a fixed price in the future. In bailouts, warrants were often taken as a form of equity-like compensation, allowing taxpayers to benefit if the company's share price recovered.
Companies in sectors deemed critically important for national security or economic resilience are most likely candidates. This includes advanced semiconductor manufacturers, firms building large-scale battery or clean energy facilities, and companies involved in processing critical minerals where U.S. supply chains are weak.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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17 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing? | Kalshi | 26% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin? | Kalshi | 22% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC? | Kalshi | 18% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ? | Kalshi | 16% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries? | Kalshi | 15% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan? | Kalshi | 14% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance? | Kalshi | 13% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly? | Kalshi | 12% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Pfizer? | Kalshi | 11% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic? | Kalshi | 8% |
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave? | Kalshi | 8% |
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