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Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

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Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

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21 markets tracked

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?	Kalshi	74%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?	Kalshi	73%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?	Kalshi	72%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?	Kalshi	50%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?	Kalshi	42%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Unusual Machines?	Kalshi	36%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?	Kalshi	27%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?	Kalshi	26%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron?	Kalshi	19%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?	Kalshi	19%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia?	Kalshi	18%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?	Kalshi	15%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?	Kalshi	15%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?	Kalshi	14%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance?	Kalshi	12%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?	Kalshi	10%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?	Kalshi	9%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing?	Kalshi	7%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?	Kalshi	7%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Pfizer?	Kalshi	6%
Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

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74%

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About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake X before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the thre

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake X before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership through wholly controlled investment vehicles and convertible rights treated as equity. Pre-existing stakes count toward the threshold. Ownership is aggregated across all share classes and listings. Crossing the thre

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Neros Technologies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Unusual Machines?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Spirit Airlines?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Palantir?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Pfizer?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Nvidia?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Micron?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in IonQ?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Freeport-McMoRan?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anduril?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHICompanies

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

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Markets21

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KALSHI

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.5¢No 26.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of GlobalFoundries before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership th

KALSHI

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Rigetti Computing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership

KALSHI

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of D-Wave Quantum before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership thr

KALSHI

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Performance Drone Works before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect owne

KALSHI

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?

If any part of the United States federal government has taken a stake of Neros Technologies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Taking a stake means acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, or equivalent ownership interests. This includes indirect ownership

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Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

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Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

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Events (1)

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

Markets (21)

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?

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Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which companies will the US take a stake in this year?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in GlobalFoundries?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Rigetti?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in D-Wave?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Performance Drone Works?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?

Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Neros Technologies?

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