Will a hurricane form by May 31? | PredictPedia

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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Name: Will a hurricane form by May 31?
End: 2026-05-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.57K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.57K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.57K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a hurricane form by May 31?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$18.57K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will a hurricane form by May 31?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 31, 2026 (136 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.

If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https:/"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 3.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a hurricane form by May 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 31, 2026): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

135d remaining

May 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

Polymarket

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Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Will a hurricane form by May 31?

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Will a hurricane form by May 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)