New Supreme Leader of Iran by...? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?

Name: New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$352.28K

Events

Markets

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New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?

Vol

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $352.28K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $352.28K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?	Poly	80%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?	Poly	74%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Poly	52%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?	Poly	21%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?	Poly	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

80%

Top Probability

$352.28K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repor

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (30 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced replacement actually becomes the next Supreme Leader, or otherwise assumes the highest government position of Iran.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible repor

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran officially announces a successor to Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of if/when the announced "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $352.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $72.4K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 4.87)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $46.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $16.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $19.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $77.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $192.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

29d 7h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

48¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/nfrnl1" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?"></iframe>

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New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?

New Supreme Leader of Iran by...?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

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Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)