Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Total Volume

$2.80K

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Markets

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30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

$2.80K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.80K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.80K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

25 markets tracked

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(25)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	69%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	66%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	59%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	56%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.60% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	53%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.62% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.64% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	47%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.66% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	43%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.68% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.70% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	36%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.72% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.76% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	26%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.78% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	24%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.80% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.82% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	19%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.86% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.84% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.88% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	13%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.90% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.92% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	11%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.94% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.96% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	9%
Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.98% on Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	9%

AI Analysis

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69%

Top Probability

$2.80K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 30, 2026 If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 30, 2026

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.98% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.98% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.96% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.94% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.92% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.90% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.88% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 13.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.86% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.84% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.82% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.80% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.78% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $450
  DATA: [Yes: 24.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.76% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $65
  DATA: [Yes: 26.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.74% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $50
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.72% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.70% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $330
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.68% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.66% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 43.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 57.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.64% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.62% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.60% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $400
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $207
  DATA: [Yes: 56.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 69.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 31.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$2.80K

Markets25

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KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.0¢No 31.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 59.0¢No 41.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

KALSHI

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.0¢No 44.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?

If the par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Oct 30, 2026, or one week following Oct 30, 2026.

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30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

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Events (1)

30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Markets (25)

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?

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Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

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30Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.50% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.52% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.54% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.56% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.58% on Oct 30, 2026?

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