What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Traders on prediction markets currently give Republicans a 90% chance of winning Texas's 17th congressional district seat in the 2026 election. In simpler terms, this means the collective intelligence of these markets sees a Republican victory as almost certain, with roughly 9 out of 10 odds. This is a very high level of confidence for an event still over eight months away.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

The high confidence in a Republican win is based on the district's recent history and political makeup. Texas's 17th district is centered around Waco and includes a large rural area. It has been represented by a Republican for decades. The current representative, Pete Sessions, has held the seat since 2021 and won his 2022 re-election by about 13 percentage points.

The district's voting patterns are a key reason for the forecast. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried the district by a margin of 11 points. This historical performance suggests a strong Republican lean that is difficult for a Democratic challenger to overcome in a midterm election year, which typically sees lower voter turnout.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The main event is Election Day on November 4, 2026. However, developments before then could shift the odds. The primary elections in March 2026 will be important. A surprise retirement by the incumbent or an unusually divisive Republican primary could introduce uncertainty. National political trends in the summer and fall of 2026, such as shifts in presidential approval ratings or the state of the economy, could also influence this local race if they significantly change the national mood.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a solid record of forecasting U.S. House races, especially in districts with clear and consistent partisan leans like TX-17. Their accuracy generally improves as Election Day gets closer. The main limitation here is the small amount of money wagered, which can make the market less responsive to new information. While a major political scandal or unexpected candidate could change the trajectory, the district's fundamental makeup makes a major shift in these odds before November unlikely.