Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?

Name: Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?
End: 2026-10-27T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.72K

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Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?

Vol

$4.72K

Events

Markets

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Polymarket

markets · $4.72K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.72K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	54%
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	19%
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	19%
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	7%
Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$4.72K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral thre

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share?
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 27, 2026 (17 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral thre

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.7K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win less than 3.25% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $419
  DATA: [Yes: 7.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 3.25-4% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4-4.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $1.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $540
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 5.5% or more of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 27, 2026): Vol $385
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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