Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Total Volume

$148.22K

Events

Markets

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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Vol

$148.22K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $148.22K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $148.22K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	61%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 14 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 12 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

Top Probability

$148.22K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

10/5 - 10/11 If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 10/5 - 10/11

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above X from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 20"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $148.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $23.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $13.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $37.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 14 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $22.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 12 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $16.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 11, 2027): Vol $28.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Volume$148.22K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 20

KALSHI

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 20

KALSHI

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 20

KALSHI

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 20

KALSHI

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢

KALSHITech

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Oct 5, 2

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24¢

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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

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Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Markets (7)

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

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Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/5 - 10/11)

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 4 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 5 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 6 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 8 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more than 10 from Oct 5, 2026 to Oct 11, 2026?

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