Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | PredictPedia

This event has ended. Showing historical data.

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Name: Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
End: 2026-01-26T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$137.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $137.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $137.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$137.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, February 22, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 26, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by January 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $137.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $26.9K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 5.10)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 26, 2026): Vol $137.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

0¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/o39Ncq" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)