Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above __?

Name: Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above __?
End: 2026-10-21T22:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$640.93

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above __?

Vol

$640.93

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $640.93

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $640.93

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.35B?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.35B?	Poly	85%
Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.5B?	Poly	72%
Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.65B?	Poly	32%
Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.95B?	Poly	21%
Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.8B?	Poly	14%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

85%

Top Probability

$640.93

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if International Business Machines' software revenue for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and t

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above __?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 21, 2026 (9 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if International Business Machines' software revenue for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and t

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if International Business Machines' software revenue for the upcoming third fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The specified metric will be considered as r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $641
* **Total Liquidity:** $599
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.07)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.35B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $340
  DATA: [Yes: 85.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 15.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.5B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $181
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.65B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 32.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.8B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $40
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will International Business Machines (IBM) Q3 Software revenue be above $7.95B?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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