Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on October 12?

Name: Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on October 12?
End: 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.37

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on October 12?

Vol

$19.37

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.37

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.37

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 on October 12?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 on October 12?	Poly	96%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on October 12?	Poly	90%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $335 on October 12?	Poly	66%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on October 12?	Poly	14%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $345 on October 12?	Poly	13%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$19.37

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No". Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on October 12?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 12, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.

If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50.

For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".

Closing prices will be used exactly as published "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $325 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $335 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $19
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $340 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $345 on October 12?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 12, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance