Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31? | PredictPedia

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Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETEconomy

Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

Name: Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$26.01K

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Markets

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Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

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Polymarket

markets · $26.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $26.01K

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$26.01K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any cou

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, April 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any cou

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $26.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.9K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $26.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/oK6RgS" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?"></iframe>

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Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

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Will Congress pass any tariffs by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)