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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET
Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets (W)
Total Volume
$0.00
Events
1
Markets
1
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets (W)
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
1
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
0
markets · $0.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph
1 market tracked
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Toledo Rockets (W)
No data available
Single-Platform Markets(1)
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 52% |
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
52%
Top Probability
$0.00
Volume
1
Markets
1
Platforms
About This Event
This event is for the WBB game between Bowling Green Falcons and Toledo Rockets on January 31 at 5:00 PM ET. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Prediction markets currently give the Miami (OH) RedHawks a strong advantage to win this college basketball game. The market implies a probability of roughly 75%, or a 3 in 4 chance, that Miami (OH) will defeat the Bowling Green Falcons. This shows a clear consensus among traders about the expected outcome.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
Two main factors explain these odds. First, Miami (OH) has a significantly better overall record this season. They are competing near the top of the Mid-American Conference (MAC) standings, while Bowling Green has struggled with consistency and sits in the lower half. Second, the game is being played at Miami's home court. Home court advantage is a real factor in college basketball, often worth a few points, and the RedHawks have been particularly strong there this season. The historical performance of both teams this year, not just a single game, is what the market is weighing heavily.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The key event is the game itself, tipping off at 8:30 PM ET on February 20. The only developments that could shift predictions before then would be a major, last-minute announcement, like a key player being ruled out due to injury or illness. Since the market resolves as soon as the game ends, the final score is the only signal that matters.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
For regular-season college basketball games, prediction markets are generally quite reliable at indicating the probable winner. They efficiently combine public information like team records, injuries, and location. However, their main limitation is that they forecast probability, not certainty. A 75% chance still means the underdog wins about one out of every four similar matchups. Upsets happen, which is why the odds for Bowling Green aren't zero. For a single game, the outcome is always somewhat uncertain.
Current Market Outlook
Prediction markets on Polymarket price the Bowling Green Falcons as a clear favorite to win their February 20th game against the Miami (OH) RedHawks. The market for a Bowling Green victory is trading at approximately 70 cents, implying a 70% probability of a Falcons win. This price suggests the consensus sees Bowling Green as the likely winner, but accounts for a significant chance of an upset. The market for a Miami (OH) win trades around 30 cents, reflecting a 30% implied probability. With over $211,000 in total volume, this market has attracted substantial trader interest, indicating confidence in the liquidity and reliability of the current price signal.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
Two primary factors explain the heavy favoritism toward Bowling Green. First, the teams' performance in Mid-American Conference (MAC) play is divergent. Entering this matchup, Bowling Green held a stronger conference record, having secured key wins against upper-tier MAC opponents. Miami (OH) has struggled with consistency, particularly on the road, where their defensive efficiency ratings are notably worse. Second, the market is likely weighing recent head-to-head history. Bowling Green has won the last three meetings between these teams, with an average margin of victory exceeding 10 points. This historical dominance, combined with current season form, creates a compelling case for the Falcons priced by traders.
What Could Change These Odds
The most immediate risk to the current pricing is injury news or a last-minute lineup change for either team, which could cause rapid price movement before tip-off. A confirmed absence of a key Bowling Green starter would likely shift probability toward Miami (OH). Beyond personnel, the market may be underestimating Miami's specific matchup advantages. If their perimeter defense, which has been a weakness, performs above expectation against Bowling Green's guards, the game could stay closer than projected. The 30% price for a RedHawks victory indicates the market sees a plausible path for an upset, often rooted in volatile factors like three-point shooting variance or home-court adjustments in a rivalry game.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.