Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Name: Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$261.84

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Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

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Polymarket

markets · $261.84

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $261.84

100%

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1 market tracked

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

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Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Poly	59%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

59%

Top Probability

$261.84

Volume

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About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, re

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (291 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, re

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs).

A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $262
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.09)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $262
  DATA: [Yes: 58.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 41.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

290d 12h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

59¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/oR-wNW" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Democrats win all &quot;core four&quot; senate races?"></iframe>

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Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

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Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Events (1)