This prediction market addresses whether Senator Bernie Sanders will launch a presidential campaign before November 4, 2028. The market resolves to 'Yes' only if Sanders formally declares his candidacy and actively campaigns for the presidency, with the stipulation that mere Federal Election Commission filings alone are insufficient to trigger resolution. The market will close early if the event occurs. The question gains significance from Sanders's unique position in American politics as a self-described democratic socialist who has twice sought the Democratic presidential nomination, in 2016 and 2020, mobilizing a substantial progressive movement. Interest stems from his age, the evolving landscape of the Democratic Party, and the persistent influence of his political agenda on national discourse. Recent developments, including his continued advocacy for Medicare for All and a $17 federal minimum wage, alongside his role as Chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, keep speculation alive about his future political ambitions, despite his advancing years.

Historical Context

Bernie Sanders's presidential ambitions have shaped the last decade of Democratic Party politics. His first campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2016 began as a long-shot challenge to Hillary Clinton but gained massive traction, particularly among young voters, by championing policies like Medicare for All, tuition-free public college, and a $15 minimum wage. He won 23 primaries and caucuses and secured over 13 million votes, fundamentally shifting the party's policy discourse leftward. In 2020, he entered the race as a frontrunner, winning the popular vote in the first three contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada) before a consolidated moderate opposition led to Joe Biden securing the nomination. These campaigns established 'The Bernie Sanders Movement' as a durable force, organizing through groups like Our Revolution. Historically, only one U.S. president, Ronald Reagan, was elected at age 73. Sanders would be 87 years old on Inauguration Day 2029, making age and voter perception a historical precedent of immense relevance. His continued tenure as a senator, where he has chaired powerful committees, allows him to maintain a national platform without the demands of a presidential campaign.

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