GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCrypto

Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Name: Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?
End: 2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$151.37K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Vol

$151.37K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $151.37K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $151.37K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Tread FDV above $5M one day after launch

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Tread FDV above $5M one day after launch	Poly	98%
Tread FDV above $20M one day after launch	Poly	72%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch	Poly	51%
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch	Poly	26%
Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch	Poly	24%
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	Poly	11%
Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Poly	7%
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch	Poly	4%
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch	Poly	2%
Tread FDV above $500M one day after launch	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

98%

Top Probability

$151.37K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after laun

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Tread FDV above ___ one day after launch?
**Category:** Crypto | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2028 (483 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count.

The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch.

The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.

"1 day after laun

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tread's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

Only an official token launched by Tread will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $151.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $56.0K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.70)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $38.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $18.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Tread FDV above $100M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $18.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $20.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $18.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $21.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Tread FDV above $500M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 9. Tread FDV above $5M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.4% (0.0%)]

### 10. Tread FDV above $20M one day after launch
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $292
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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