Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US electricity price in September

Total Volume

$208.58

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US electricity price in September

Vol

$208.58

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $208.58

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $208.58

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?	Kalshi	94%
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?	Kalshi	86%
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?	Kalshi	44%
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?	Kalshi	12%
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?	Kalshi	8%
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.2¢?	Kalshi	8%
Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.4¢?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$208.58

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September 2026 If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average [APU000072610], stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. The value will be measured to the last decimal place published by the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made aft

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US electricity price in September
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September 2026

If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour in U.S. City Average [APU000072610], stated in U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. The value will be measured to the last decimal place published by the Source Agency. Revisions to the Underlying made aft

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above 20.4¢, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $209
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.4¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $189
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.2¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 21, 2026): Vol $20
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US electricity price in September

Volume$208.58

Markets7

7 of 7

Sort:

KALSHI

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above 19.2¢, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour i

KALSHI

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?

If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above 19.4¢, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour i

KALSHI

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?

If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above 19.6¢, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour i

KALSHI

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?

If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above 19.8¢, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour i

KALSHI

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?

If the average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 is above 20.0¢, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The Underlying is the first value published by FRED for the September 2026 observation of Average Price: Electricity per Kilowatt-Hour i

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Average Yes Price

37¢

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US electricity price in September

US electricity price in September

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Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US electricity price in September

Markets (7)

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US electricity price in September

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.2¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.4¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.6¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 19.8¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?

Will average price of electricity per kilowatt-hour in the U.S. city average for September 2026 be above 20.0¢?

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