Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

Total Volume

$1.24

Events

Markets

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Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

Vol

$1.24

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $1.24

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.24

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

2 markets tracked

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(2)

Market	Platform	Price
Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	41%
Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	25%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$1.24

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jul 1, 2027 If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before X 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Exploratory committ

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jul 1, 2027

If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before X 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. Exploratory committ

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campai"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

Volume$1.24

Markets2

2 of 2

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KALSHI

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 40.5¢No 59.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jul 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campai

KALSHI

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.0¢No 75.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?

If James Fishback announces after Issuance that they will run for any government office in ANY YEAR before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The person must publicly announce their campai

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33¢

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Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

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Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

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Events (1)

Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

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Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?

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Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

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Will James Fishback announce a run for public office?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jul 1, 2027?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?

Will James Fishback announce a run for any government office before Jan 1, 2027?

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