Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

Name: Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
End: 2026-03-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$316.16K

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Markets

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Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $316.16K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $316.16K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$316.16K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Il

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 31, 2026 (75 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or to announce her resignation (e.g., due to her removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Il

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar announces she has resigned, will resign, or will not run for re-election for United States Representative from Minnesota by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Ilhan Omar to resign or t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $316.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $14.0K
* **Activity Level:** Very High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 22.53)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 31, 2026): Vol $316.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

74d 16h remaining

Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

3¢

Polymarket

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Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

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Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)