US gasoline CPI for August
$0.00
1
11
US gasoline CPI for August
$0.00
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
August 2026 If the Gasoline, All Types, in U.S. City Average for August 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. This market uses FRED series CUSR0000SETB01: Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Gasoline, All Types, in U.S. City Average, which is published monthly and is seasonally adjusted. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.
What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting
Traders on Kalshi currently give a 79% chance that the average price of gasoline in U.S. cities will be above 300 (the index value, not dollars per gallon) in August 2026. That's roughly a 4 in 5 chance. To put it differently, the market thinks there's only about a 1 in 5 chance that gasoline prices will be lower than that threshold.
The index tracks all types of gasoline across urban America, adjusted for seasonal patterns. For context, the index was around 320 in mid-2024 and has fluctuated between roughly 250 and 350 over the past few years. So 300 is a middle-of-the-road number, not an extreme prediction.
Why the Market Sees It This Way
The market's confidence that gasoline prices will stay above 300 reflects a few key forces.
First, oil production decisions by OPEC+ and U.S. shale producers suggest supply will remain somewhat constrained. OPEC+ has been slowly unwinding production cuts, but they've signaled caution. If global demand stays steady, that keeps a floor under prices.
Second, the U.S. economy has been resilient. Strong economic activity means more driving, more shipping, more gasoline consumption. Recession fears have faded for now, which supports fuel demand.
Third, there's the seasonal factor. August is peak summer driving season in the U.S. Families take road trips. People drive more. Gasoline demand typically hits its highest point of the year, which pushes prices up. Even in years when prices eventually fall, August is often a high point.
Some analysts worry about potential disruptions too. Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico can shut down refineries. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or Russia could affect global oil markets. The market is pricing in some risk of these events.
Key Dates and Events to Watch
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the August 2026 CPI data in mid-September 2026. That's the official resolution date.
Between now and then, several things could shift the odds. Monthly CPI releases for the months leading up to August will show the trend. If gasoline prices keep falling through early 2026, the market odds would likely drop. If they spike, odds could go even higher.
OPEC+ meetings are worth watching. Their next production decisions could either tighten or loosen supply. Also watch hurricane season forecasts for summer 2026. An active season prediction could push odds up.
How Reliable Are These Predictions?
Prediction markets have a mixed track record on commodity prices. They're good at aggregating information about short-term events with clear resolution dates. But oil and gasoline prices are notoriously hard to predict more than a few months out. Geopolitical surprises, economic shocks, and weather can all upend the best forecasts.
The 79% figure is a strong signal, but not a sure bet. It tells you the collective wisdom of traders thinks staying above 300 is the most likely outcome. But that still leaves a 1 in 5 chance of a surprise drop.
Current Market Outlook
Kalshi traders are pricing a 79% chance that the August 2026 gasoline CPI will exceed 300 (seasonally adjusted). That is a strong bet that gasoline prices remain elevated three years from now. For context, the August 2024 reading was 296.1, meaning the market expects roughly flat to slightly higher prices over a two-year period. This is not a prediction of a spike. It is a prediction that the post-2022 normalization has bottomed out.
Key Factors Driving the Odds
The primary driver is the structural shift in U.S. refining capacity. Since 2020, the U.S. has lost roughly 1 million barrels per day of refining capacity due to permanent closures, including the 2021 shutdown of the LyondellBasell Houston refinery and the 2022 conversion of the Phillips 66 Rodeo facility. New capacity is slow to come online. The Biden administration's 2023 decision to block the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion for years also kept Canadian heavy crude flowing south at a discount, but that discount is narrowing as TMX is now operational.
Second, the market is pricing in a baseline assumption that OPEC+ will not flood the market. The cartel has consistently deferred production increases since 2023, and the current plan to unwind cuts in late 2024 is viewed skeptically. If OPEC+ actually adds 2 million barrels per day in 2025, the August 2026 price could be well below 300. But traders are betting discipline holds.
Third, the seasonal adjustment matters. The August reading is usually one of the highest of the year due to summer driving demand. The market is not betting on a crisis. It is betting that normal seasonal peaks stay above 300.
What Could Change These Odds
The biggest risk to the 79% price is a recession. If the U.S. enters a downturn in 2025 or 2026, gasoline demand could fall 3-5%, pushing the August CPI below 300. The 2020 lockdown sent gasoline CPI to 195. Even a mild recession in 2001 pushed it below 250.
On the upside, any supply disruption could push prices much higher. The Strait of Hormuz chokepoint remains a tail risk. If Iran or Houthi attacks escalate in 2025, a 10-15% spike in gasoline CPI would make the 300 threshold look like a bargain.
The market will resolve when the August 2026 data is released, likely in mid-September 2026. There are no intermediate updates to trade against. This is a long-duration bet on structural supply constraints versus demand destruction.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Overview
The US Gasoline CPI for August 2026 refers to the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for gasoline, all types, in U.S. city average, as measured by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series CUSR0000SETB01. This index tracks the monthly change in the price of gasoline paid by urban consumers, seasonally adjusted. The prediction market question asks whether the August 2026 value will exceed a specific threshold, with resolution based on the official data release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Gasoline prices are a volatile component of the CPI, influenced by crude oil costs, refining capacity, geopolitical events, and seasonal demand. August typically sees high driving demand in the United States due to summer travel, which can push prices upward. The seasonally adjusted series removes regular seasonal patterns to reveal underlying trends, making it a cleaner measure for comparison. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released, meaning the outcome is determined by the BLS's scheduled publication, usually in mid-September for August data. Investors, policymakers, and consumers watch this index closely because gasoline costs directly affect household budgets and are a key input for inflation calculations. The Federal Reserve uses CPI data, including its gasoline component, to inform monetary policy decisions on interest rates. As of early 2025, gasoline prices have shown significant volatility, with the national average fluctuating between $3.00 and $4.00 per gallon, driven by OPEC+ production cuts, refinery outages, and global economic uncertainty. The August 2026 reading will reflect the cumulative effect of these factors plus any new developments in energy markets. Traders in prediction markets are betting on whether the index will break above or stay below the specified threshold, making this a speculative but data-driven contract.
Historical Context
The gasoline CPI series CUSR0000SETB01 began in 1978, capturing the era of the second oil crisis. In April 1980, the index hit a then-record high of 103.3 (1982-1984=100), reflecting the Iran-Iraq war and OPEC production cuts. Adjusted for inflation, that peak would be equivalent to over $4.00 per gallon in 2025 dollars. The index fell sharply in 1986 when oil prices collapsed, then stayed relatively low until the early 2000s. A major turning point came in 2008, when crude oil prices surged above $140 per barrel, pushing the gasoline index to 130.0 in July 2008. That record stood until March 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent the index to 168.5, the highest level in the series history. The 2022 spike was driven by sanctions on Russian oil, global supply constraints, and post-pandemic demand recovery. Since then, the index has retreated but remains elevated compared to pre-2020 levels. In August 2023, the index stood at 140.2, while in August 2024 it was 135.8, reflecting easing global oil prices and increased U.S. production. Seasonal patterns show that August often has higher prices due to summer driving season, but the seasonal adjustment factor in the CPI series removes this regular variation to show the underlying trend. The current threshold for the prediction market will determine whether August 2026 breaks above or below recent levels.
Why It Matters
Gasoline prices are one of the most visible and politically sensitive components of inflation. A change in the gasoline CPI directly affects household budgets, especially for lower-income families who spend a larger share of income on fuel. For example, a 10% increase in gasoline prices can reduce discretionary spending by 0.5% to 1% of GDP, according to some economic models. This has implications for consumer confidence, retail sales, and overall economic growth. Politically, high gasoline prices have historically been a liability for incumbent presidents, as seen in the 2008 and 2022 elections. The August 2026 reading will come just two months before the November 2026 midterm elections, making it a potential campaign issue. For investors, the gasoline CPI influences energy sector stocks, commodity futures, and inflation-protected securities. A reading above the threshold could signal persistent inflation pressures, affecting Federal Reserve rate decisions. Conversely, a low reading might indicate economic weakness or successful policy interventions. The prediction market itself reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are betting on the outcome, providing a real-time probability that can be compared to professional forecasts from the EIA or Wall Street analysts.
Current Status
As of early 2025, the gasoline CPI index has been trending downward from the 2022 peak but remains above pre-pandemic levels. The February 2025 reading was approximately 132.5, according to BLS data. Oil prices have stabilized around $70-$80 per barrel for Brent crude, supported by OPEC+ production cuts but capped by weak global demand, particularly from China. U.S. gasoline demand is projected to be flat or slightly declining as fuel efficiency improves and electric vehicle adoption grows. The prediction market for August 2026 is likely focused on whether the index will stay below 140 or break above that level, depending on the threshold set by the market creator. Traders are watching for any supply disruptions, such as refinery closures or geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, that could push prices higher. The BLS will release the August 2026 data in mid-September 2026, at which point the market will resolve.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the difference between the gasoline CPI and the average price at the pump?
The gasoline CPI (CUSR0000SETB01) is a seasonally adjusted index that tracks price changes for all types of gasoline sold in urban areas, using a base period of 1982-1984. The average pump price is a nominal dollar figure that is not seasonally adjusted and can vary by region. The CPI index is designed to measure inflation, while the pump price is a direct consumer cost.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
