Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Name: French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
End: 2027-04-18T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$4.26K

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Markets

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French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Vol

$4.26K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $4.26K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.26K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

16 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	46%
Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	32%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	18%
Will Marine Le Pen win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	6%
Will François Ruffin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Jordan Bardella win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	5%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Éric Zemmour win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will Marine Tondelier win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	4%
Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Gabriel Attal win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will François Hollande win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	3%
Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

46%

Top Probability

$4.26K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupi

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** French Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 18, 2027 (188 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupi

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more c"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $119.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.04)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Marine Le Pen win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $335
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $565
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will David Lisnard win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $238
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $377
  DATA: [Yes: 46.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will François Hollande win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $192
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Gabriel Attal win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $492
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Bruno Retailleau win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $183
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Sarah Knafo win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $152
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Dominique de Villepin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $233
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Christine Lagarde win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $238
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Éric Zemmour win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $213
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Jordan Bardella win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $198
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Sébastien Lecornu win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $192
  DATA: [Yes: 3.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will François Ruffin win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $193
  DATA: [Yes: 4.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.1% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Marine Tondelier win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 18, 2027): Vol $254
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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