2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Song)? | PredictPedia

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16 markets tracked

Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

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Single-Platform Markets(16)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	97%
Will I Lied To You win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	3%
Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tie win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Sweet Dreams Of Joy win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Salt Then Sour Then Sweet win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Our Love win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will No Place Like Home win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Last Time (I Seen The Sun) win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Highest 2 Lowest win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will The Girl In The Bubble win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will F1 win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Dying To Live win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Dream As One win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will Dear Me win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%
Will As Alive As You Need Me To Be win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Song)?
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If X has won Best Music, Original Song, at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Train Dreams has won Best Music (Original Song) at the 98th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The 98th Academy Awards are expected to be held on March 15, 2026."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $16.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.62M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $482
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Tie win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Sweet Dreams Of Joy win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $282
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Salt Then Sour Then Sweet win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $733
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Our Love win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $316
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will No Place Like Home win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $960
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will I Lied To You win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Last Time (I Seen The Sun) win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $532
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Highest 2 Lowest win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $286
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will The Girl In The Bubble win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $489
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will F1 win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Dying To Live win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Dream As One win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $267
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Dear Me win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $316
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will As Alive As You Need Me To Be win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $815
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

7¢

Kalshi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/oceNlZ" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Song)?"></iframe>

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2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Song)?

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Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Song)?

Markets (16)

Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will I Lied To You win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will I Lied To You win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Tie win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Tie win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Sweet Dreams Of Joy win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Sweet Dreams Of Joy win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 Oscar for Best Music (Original Song)?

Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Golden win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will I Lied To You win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will I Lied To You win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Train Dreams win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Tie win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Tie win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Sweet Dreams Of Joy win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

Will Sweet Dreams Of Joy win Best Music (Original Song) at the Oscars?

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