Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Name: Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
End: 2026-09-30T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.50K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

Vol

$19.50K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.50K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.50K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?	Poly	7%
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 15?	Poly	5%
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

Top Probability

$19.50K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 P

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 30, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 P

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The first day of t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $10.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.88)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 2. Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by October 15?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 16, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics