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Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Name: OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
End: 2026-12-31T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$33.10K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

Vol

$33.10K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $33.10K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $33.10K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	Poly	100%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	Poly	83%
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	Poly	18%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$33.10K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Othe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Othe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $33.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.0K
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 16.56)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 82.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 60% or higher?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $11.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.3% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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