Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

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$6.43K

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Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

Vol

$6.43K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.43K

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0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.43K

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9 markets tracked

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	96%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	96%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	96%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	94%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	83%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	64%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	40%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	14%
Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	9%

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96%

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$6.43K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Bernadette Wilson If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Bernadette Wilson ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary resu

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Bernadette Wilson

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Bernadette Wilson ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary resu

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 32% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Bernadett"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 32% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $2.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 28% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 26% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $780
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 17.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

Volume$6.43K

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KALSHI

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 18% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Bernadett

KALSHI

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 16% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Bernadett

KALSHI

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 20% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Bernadett

KALSHI

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 22% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Bernadett

KALSHI

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.5¢No 17.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Bernadette Wilson in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 24% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Bernadett

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/opYkhV" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)"></iframe>

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Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

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Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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Events (1)

Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

Markets (9)

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Governor election: Bernadette Wilson vote percent (1st Round)

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 18% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 16% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 22% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Bernadette Wilson receive at least 24% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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