Events
GroupKALSHI
Angers vs Marseille
Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison
Polymarket
0
markets · $0.00
Kalshi
3
markets · $832.00
Price Spread
0.0%avg
max 0.0%
Arbitrage
0
of 0 cross-platform
Volume DistributionTotal: $832.00
100%
Kalshi leads
$832.00
1
3
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
ANG vs OM (Jan 17) If X wins the Angers vs Marseille professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Jan 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Angers vs Marseille professional Ligue 1 soccer game originally scheduled for Jan 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolve
Prediction markets currently price a Marseille victory at 60%, implying the market sees them as clear favorites but with significant risk. This translates to an implied probability where Marseille is viewed as 1.5 times more likely to win than not. The "Angers Win" and "Tie" markets are collectively priced at 40%, reflecting Angers's underdog status. Trading volume is thin at approximately $1,000 across the three outcome markets, indicating limited capital commitment and potential for price volatility.
Two primary factors explain Marseille's favored status. First, the historical and seasonal performance gap is substantial. Marseille is a perennial European competition contender with a far stronger squad, while Angers has struggled in recent Ligue 1 campaigns, often battling relegation. Second, the market is pricing in fundamental quality. Marseille's financial resources and roster depth, featuring higher-caliber international players, typically translate to greater consistency and attacking threat, especially against lower-table sides like Angers, even in away fixtures.
The odds are most sensitive to team news and motivation shifts closer to the match date in January 2026. Key injuries to Marseille's star attackers or defenders could rapidly narrow the spread, making a draw or Angers upset more probable. Conversely, if Angers's form collapses further in the lead-up, Marseille's price could solidify above 70%. Additionally, the thin liquidity means even modest betting activity could swing prices meaningfully before more volume enters the market. The long-dated nature of this market leaves it exposed to major managerial changes or transfer window activity for both clubs in 2025.
This market is trading exclusively on Kalshi, with no comparable active market on Polymarket. This lack of a cross-platform listing eliminates arbitrage opportunities but also concentrates all liquidity and price discovery on a single exchange. The solitary listing underscores the niche nature of this specific Ligue 1 fixture in the prediction market space, where only the most prominent matches typically see multi-platform listings.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the outcome of a professional Ligue 1 soccer match between Angers SCO and Olympique de Marseille, originally scheduled for January 17, 2026. The market specifically resolves based on the result after the regulation 90 minutes of play plus any added stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. If Angers wins the match under these conditions, the market resolves to 'Yes'. A separate, linked market would resolve to 'Yes' if the match ends in a draw. This setup allows participants to speculate on the direct match outcome, a common focus for sports betting and prediction markets globally. The interest stems from Ligue 1 being France's top professional football division, where every match impacts league standings, European qualification, and relegation battles. The specific pairing of Angers, a club often fighting to maintain its top-flight status, against historic powerhouse Marseille, creates a classic 'David vs. Goliath' dynamic that attracts significant attention from fans and analysts. Recent seasons have seen Marseille consistently challenging for Champions League spots, while Angers has experienced relegation and promotion cycles, making their encounters unpredictable and strategically intriguing. The timing in mid-January places the match during a critical period of the season where teams' form and ambitions become clearer, influencing team selection, tactics, and motivation.
The rivalry between Angers and Marseille is not a traditional derby but represents a recurring clash between a provincial club and a metropolitan giant. Historically, Olympique de Marseille, founded in 1899, is one of France's most successful clubs, winning nine Ligue 1 titles and the UEFA Champions League in 1993. Angers SCO, founded in 1919, has a more modest history, with its peak being a Coupe de France victory in 1957 and frequent spells in the top division. The first recorded competitive match between the two occurred in the 1967-68 season, a 1-1 draw in Ligue 1. In recent decades, matches have often been characterized by Marseille's need to secure points for European qualification against an Angers side typically battling relegation. A notable historical precedent was the 2021-22 season, where Angers defeated Marseille 3-2 in a surprising result that impacted Marseille's title chase. The head-to-head record heavily favors Marseille, reflecting their historical resource advantage and consistent presence at the top of French football. The fixture's context is also shaped by the broader financial disparity in Ligue 1, where clubs like Marseille have significantly larger budgets for player wages and transfers compared to Angers, making any Angers victory a notable achievement.
Beyond the immediate sporting result, this match has significant implications for the financial and competitive landscape of French football. For Angers, a positive result against a top club can provide a major morale boost, attract sponsorship interest, and increase the market value of its players, which is a key revenue stream. For Marseille, dropping points against a lower-ranked team can be costly in the tight race for Champions League qualification, which brings tens of millions of euros in UEFA revenue. The outcome influences the career trajectories of managers and players, with scouts from larger European leagues often watching such fixtures. Socially, the match is a major event for the cities of Angers and Marseille, impacting local business and community pride. A surprise Angers win can energize its fanbase and challenge perceptions of predictable hierarchies in the league, while a Marseille victory reinforces its status and satisfies its massive, expectant supporter base. The result also feeds into broader narratives about competitive balance in Ligue 1, a league often criticized for being dominated by Paris Saint-Germain.
As of the 2024-25 season, both clubs are in transitional phases. Angers is competing in Ligue 2 after relegation in 2023, focusing on rebuilding with the aim of promotion back to the top flight by 2026. Olympique de Marseille is undergoing a project under new ownership and management, aiming to consistently finish in the top three and challenge for trophies. The squads for the 2026 match will be shaped by several upcoming transfer windows. Marseille is likely to continue investing in established internationals, while Angers's strategy will rely on player development and shrewd acquisitions. The exact form and personnel for January 2026 remain speculative, but the structural dynamics of the clubs suggest Marseille will enter as favorites.
The match is scheduled to be played at the Stade Raymond Kopa in Angers, France. This is Angers SCO's home stadium, with a capacity of approximately 18,000 spectators.
Prediction markets typically have specific rules for postponements. The market would likely remain open until the match is played, resolving based on the result of the rescheduled fixture. The official market description should be consulted for the precise resolution criteria.
Broadcast rights vary by country. In France, Ligue 1 matches are primarily broadcast on Amazon Prime Video and Canal+. International viewers should check local sports networks or streaming services that hold Ligue 1 broadcasting rights.
Historical records show several players have scored multiple goals in this fixture. For precise, updated statistics, resources like the French Football Federation (FFF) database or Ligue 1's official historical archives provide authoritative data on head-to-head records.
The most recent Angers victory over Marseille was a 3-2 win in Ligue 1 on August 21, 2021, at the Stade Raymond Kopa. Angers came from behind to secure the three points in that match.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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3 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Angers vs Marseille Winner? (Marseille) | Kalshi | 60% |
Angers vs Marseille Winner? (Tie) | Kalshi | 24% |
Angers vs Marseille Winner? (Angers) | Kalshi | 16% |
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