Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will Josh Turek outperform the polls?

Total Volume

$4.51K

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Trade on Kalshi

Will Josh Turek outperform the polls?

Vol

$4.51K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.51K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

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Volume DistributionTotal: $4.51K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will Josh Turek outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Josh Turek outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?	Kalshi	38%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

38%

Top Probability

$4.51K

Volume

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About This Event

Iowa If Josh Turek's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Josh Turek outperform the polls?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Iowa

If Josh Turek's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa, then the market resolves to Yes. The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling average. "Outperform" means the actual result exceeds the poll figure; "underperform" means it falls short. Only certified results count - not preliminary tallies or projections. If using a poll range, the midpoint 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Josh Turek's margin of victory outperforms that of the Real Clear Polling average at 10 AM ET on Nov 3, 2026 in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The market compares the official certified election result to the specified poll or polling aver"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Josh Turek outperform the Real Clear Polling average in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 10, 2027): Vol $4.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections