Name: What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $314.45K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $314.45K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?	Poly	94%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?	Poly	89%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Poly	73%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?	Poly	39%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?	Poly	14%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?	Poly	11%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?	Poly	10%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	Poly	9%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?	Poly	9%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?	Poly	8%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Poly	8%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?	Poly	7%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?	Poly	7%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	Poly	7%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?	Poly	6%
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027?	Poly	5%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?	Poly	3%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?	Poly	2%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

94%

Top Probability

$314.45K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, January 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (350 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $305.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $156.1K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.96)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.0% or higher before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $10.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $567
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.0% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $86
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.25% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $120
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $426
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $88.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $21.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.5% or higher before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.4% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $865
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $563
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $82
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $166
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.75% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $380
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.9% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.25% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $665
  DATA: [Yes: 8.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.6% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $113.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 72.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $49.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETEconomy