Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETTech

Base iPhone 18 released by...?

Name: Base iPhone 18 released by...?
End: 2027-05-01T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.20K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Base iPhone 18 released by...?

Vol

$1.20K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.20K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.20K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?	Poly	75%
Base iPhone 18 released by March 31, 2027?	Poly	71%
Base iPhone 18 released by February 28, 2027?	Poly	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$1.20K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released. In order to

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Base iPhone 18 released by...?
**Category:** Tech | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 1, 2027 (202 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designation. The iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max, iPhone 18e, iPhone Air 2, the foldable iPhone, and any phone released under any other name will not qualify, regardless of when it is released.

In order to 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases the base iPhone 18 by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The base iPhone 18 means the standard model of Apple's iPhone 18 generation, marketed by Apple as "iPhone 18" with no further designat"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.24)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Base iPhone 18 released by February 28, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $425
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Base iPhone 18 released by March 31, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Base iPhone 18 released by April 30, 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 1, 2027): Vol $567
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETTech