$305.00
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$305.00
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Bolivia’s gubernatorial elections are scheduled to be held on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party whose official candidates win the most gubernatorial elections for Bolivia’s departments during these elections. A candidate will be considered an official candidate of a party if they are officially nominated by that party and are registered for the relevant election in affiliation with that party. Independent candidates will not count for any party. Bolivia’s departm
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability to the Liberty and Democracy (LIBRE) party winning the most gubernatorial elections in Bolivia's 2026 vote. With a price of 38% on Polymarket, the market implies LIBRE has a roughly 1 in 3 chance of securing the most departmental governorships. This suggests traders view the party as a significant underdog, though not completely out of contention. The market is characterized by thin liquidity, with minimal trading volume, indicating a lack of strong consensus or speculative interest at this early stage.
The primary factor suppressing LIBRE's odds is the entrenched dominance of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party in Bolivian politics. MAS has controlled the presidency since 2006 and holds a powerful national political machine, making it the favorite in most regional races. LIBRE, while a notable opposition force, has a more limited regional base and infrastructure. Furthermore, the 2025 presidential election, scheduled for October 2025, will serve as a critical bellwether. A decisive MAS victory there would likely cement its momentum heading into the 2026 gubernatorial contests, further depressing LIBRE's prospects. The market is essentially pricing in the high historical barrier for an opposition party to outperform MAS's organized national network across multiple departments.
The odds could see significant volatility following the outcome of the October 2025 general elections. A surprisingly weak showing by MAS in the presidential or legislative vote would be the most direct catalyst for a sharp increase in LIBRE's probability. Conversely, a MAS landslide would likely push LIBRE's odds even lower. Regional alliances and candidate nominations, which will solidify in late 2025 and early 2026, are another key variable. If LIBRE can form a broad coalition with other opposition parties in key departments, its chances of winning a plurality of governorships would improve. Monitoring polling and coalition talks after the 2025 national election will be essential for gauging any shift in the market's current pessimistic outlook for LIBRE.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
The 2026 Bolivia Gubernatorial Elections refer to the scheduled subnational elections for the governors of Bolivia's nine departments, set for March 22, 2026. These elections are a critical component of Bolivia's decentralized political system, where departmental governors wield significant administrative power over regional budgets, infrastructure, and local policy implementation. The outcome will determine the political control of Bolivia's regions for the subsequent five-year term and serve as a major midterm referendum on the national government's performance. This specific prediction market focuses on which political party will secure the most gubernatorial seats, a metric that reflects broader national political trends and regional power dynamics beyond the presidency. The elections occur in a politically volatile environment shaped by the legacy of the 2019 political crisis, ongoing economic challenges, and deep regional divisions, particularly between the western highlands and the eastern lowlands. Interest in these elections stems from their potential to reshape the balance of power between the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) party and a fragmented opposition, influencing everything from resource allocation to the political trajectory leading up to the 2030 general elections. Analysts view the gubernatorial races as a key indicator of MAS's enduring strength in its rural indigenous heartlands versus its vulnerability in urban and eastern regions.
Bolivia's current system of electing departmental governors was established by the 2009 Constitution under President Evo Morales, which redefined the country as a plurinational state and formalized departmental autonomy. The first direct elections for governor took place in 2005, prior to the new constitution, but the 2010 and 2015 elections under the new framework solidified the political map, with MAS dominating the western highland departments of La Paz, Oruro, Potosí, and Cochabamba, while opposition groups held sway in the eastern "Media Luna" (Half Moon) departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando, and Tarija. The 2021 gubernatorial elections were a major upset, occurring in the turbulent aftermath of the 2019 political crisis that led to Morales's resignation. In those elections, MAS lost several key departments, including the crucial Department of La Paz, reflecting a significant erosion of its urban support. The opposition victory in La Paz, won by Santos Quispe, was particularly symbolic. This historical pattern of regional polarization between the MAS-aligned Andean west and the opposition-oriented eastern lowlands sets the fundamental battleground for 2026. The elections will test whether the 2021 results were a temporary backlash or a lasting realignment.
The party that wins the most governorships will gain critical leverage over subnational resource distribution, influencing billions of dollars in departmental development budgets and royalties from natural gas and mining. This control directly impacts regional economies, infrastructure projects, and social programs, creating tangible disparities in quality of life across the country. Furthermore, governors command significant political machines and media platforms, making them essential for building national coalitions and launching presidential bids. A strong showing by the opposition could fracture MAS's legislative agenda by creating powerful regional counterweights to the national government, potentially leading to political gridlock. Conversely, a MAS sweep would consolidate President Arce's authority and smooth the path for his preferred successor in the 2030 presidential election. The results will also signal the strength of Bolivia's decentralized model, either reinforcing regional identities or demonstrating the enduring power of a centralized political project.
As of late 2024, the political landscape is in a pre-campaign phase. The ruling MAS party has begun internal discussions regarding potential candidates, with particular focus on recapturing the Department of La Paz. The opposition remains fragmented into several parties and civic committees, including Creemos in Santa Cruz, Comunidad Ciudadana, and new movements, with no unified national coalition yet formed. The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has officially scheduled the elections for March 22, 2026, and is expected to open the candidate registration period in late 2025. Recent regional conflicts, such as disputes over tax revenue sharing and lithium extraction contracts, are already framing the early political debate and defining regional grievances that will feature prominently in the campaigns.
A governor is the executive head of an entire department (similar to a state), overseeing regional development, infrastructure, and administration of national resources. A mayor governs a single municipality or city within a department. The 2026 elections are for the nine departmental governors, not municipal mayors.
Legally, yes, as there is no term limit for the gubernatorial office. Politically, it is considered highly unlikely. Morales remains focused on national and internal party politics, and such a move would be seen as a major demotion. His influence will be exercised through endorsements and party machinery.
The prediction market resolves based on which party wins the most gubernatorial elections. In the event of a tie, for example if two parties each win four departments and one is won by an independent, the market would resolve to the party with the most wins. A 4-4-1 split would result in a tie between the two parties with four wins.
Key issues include the management and distribution of natural gas and lithium revenues, regional autonomy versus central government control, economic development and unemployment, and infrastructure projects. Corruption and public service delivery are also perennial concerns for voters.
The Department of La Paz has the largest voting-age population, with an estimated 2.2 million eligible voters. It is therefore the most significant prize in terms of sheer electoral numbers and is considered a critical swing department after being lost by MAS in 2021.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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