GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Total Volume

$0.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Vol

$0.00

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?	Kalshi	25%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?	Kalshi	21%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?	Kalshi	16%
Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?	Kalshi	14%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?	Kalshi	11%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?	Kalshi	7%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%?	Kalshi	3%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%?	Kalshi	2%
Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 16 and 100%?	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

25%

Top Probability

$0.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

At the release of the national House popular vote data If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between X and Y percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all R

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** 2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** At the release of the national House popular vote data

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between X and Y percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all R

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victor"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 16 and 100%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 2 and 4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 12 and 14%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 0 and 2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Feb 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Volume$0.00

Markets10

10 of 10

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victor

KALSHI

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory

KALSHI

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victo

KALSHI

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of vict

KALSHI

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The national House popular vote margin of victory

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

11¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/p5ckRr" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Markets (10)

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

2026 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 6 and 8%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 10 and 12%?

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

Will Republicans win the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 4 and 6%?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget