Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Will the temperature in San Jose (SJC Airport) drop below 40°F in December 2026?

Total Volume

$5.31K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will the temperature in San Jose (SJC Airport) drop below 40°F in December 2026?

Vol

$5.31K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $5.31K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $5.31K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the temperature in San Jose drop below 40°F in December 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the temperature in San Jose drop below 40°F in December 2026?	Kalshi	63%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

63%

Top Probability

$5.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2026 If any hourly temperature value reported for KSJC in San Jose within December 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 is strictly less than 40 degrees Fahrenheit, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for KSJC is available at https://weather.com/kalshi. Temperature values are the hourly temperature observations reported by The Weather Company for KSJC. The market resolves Yes if any single hourly value within December 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 satisfies the condition; a v

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the temperature in San Jose (SJC Airport) drop below 40°F in December 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Dec 1 – Dec 31, 2026

If any hourly temperature value reported for KSJC in San Jose within December 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 is strictly less than 40 degrees Fahrenheit, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for KSJC is available at https://weather.com/kalshi. Temperature values are the hourly temperature observations reported by The Weather Company for KSJC. The market resolves Yes if any single hourly value within December 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 satisfies the condition; a v

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any hourly temperature value reported for KSJC in San Jose within December 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026 is strictly less than 40 degrees Fahrenheit, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for KSJC is available at https://weather.com/kalshi. Temperature values are the hourly t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $5.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the temperature in San Jose drop below 40°F in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 3, 2027): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather