GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?

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Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?

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Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

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About This Event

On Jul 9, 2026 If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Las Vegas, NV" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 9, 2026

If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=vef, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "Las Vegas, NV" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the desired date,

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is greater than 81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weathe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the minimum temperature be 74-75° on Jul 9, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 16, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is greater than 81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weathe

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢

KALSHIClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is between 80-81° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is less than 74° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.g

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is between 78-79° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.

KALSHI

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIClimate

CLOSING SOON

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

If the minimum temperature recorded at Las Vegas for Jul 9, 2026, is between 76-77° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLILAS can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/pDfMZL" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?"></iframe>

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Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

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Events (1)

Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?

Markets (6)

Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

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Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be >81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be <74° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jul 9, 2026?

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