This prediction market focuses on forecasting the maximum temperature recorded at Milan Malpensa International Airport on March 27, 2026. The market resolves based on data from Weather Underground's historical records for the Malpensa Airport weather station, designated as LIMC. Participants predict which temperature range will contain the official high temperature for that specific date, measured in degrees Celsius. This type of market falls under climate prediction, where meteorological data and seasonal forecasting models are analyzed to anticipate specific weather outcomes. Milan's climate, classified as humid subtropical, features variable spring weather in March, making single-day temperature predictions a challenge influenced by Atlantic fronts, Alpine geography, and urban heat effects. Interest in such markets comes from meteorologists testing forecasting skill, climate researchers observing anomaly trends, and the general public engaged in weather-based speculation. The specific choice of Malpensa Airport as the data source is important because it is the official reference station for Milan, maintained according to World Meteorological Organization standards, ensuring consistent and verifiable measurements free from excessive urban heat distortion compared to city-center stations. The resolution relies entirely on the finalized daily data published on the Weather Underground history page for LIMC.

Historical Context

Milan's climate has been systematically recorded since the 19th century, with the Malpensa station becoming the principal reference in the late 20th century after the closure of the city-center Brera observatory. Historical data shows that March temperatures in Milan are highly variable. For example, on March 27, 2012, the high was 22.8°C, while on the same date in 2018, it was only 9.0°C. This range of nearly 14 degrees Celsius for the same calendar date illustrates the forecasting challenge. The period from late March is a transition between winter and spring, where the weather can be influenced by cold air descending from the Alps or warm, humid air pushing north from the Mediterranean. A notable precedent occurred on March 28, 2012, when temperatures reached 24.4°C, one of the warmest late-March readings on record, driven by a strong anticyclone over Central Europe. In contrast, March 2013 was notably cold, with snow falling in Milan in late March. The long-term trend for March in Milan shows a warming signal. Data from ARPA Lombardia indicates the average March temperature in the 1991-2020 period was about 1.5°C warmer than the 1961-1990 average, increasing the probability of warmer outliers in any given year.

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