Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETClimate

Highest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Name: Highest temperature in Taipei on October 13?
End: 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.40K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Highest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Vol

$3.40K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.40K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.40K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 13?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 13?	Poly	45%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 13?	Poly	37%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 13?	Poly	11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 13?	Poly	5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 13?	Poly	4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 13?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 13?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 13?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on October 13?	Poly	1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on October 13?	Poly	0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 13?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

45%

Top Probability

$3.40K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section. This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in Taipei on October 13?
**Category:** Climate | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (2 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $61.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $103
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $53
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $108
  DATA: [Yes: 0.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.3% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $134
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $71
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $254
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $427
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $861
  DATA: [Yes: 45.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 55.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $789
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $397
  DATA: [Yes: 4.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.4% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETClimate