What Prediction Markets Are Forecasting

Traders on Polymarket are almost certain that at least one of England's "Big Six" football clubs will fail to qualify for any European competition next season. The current price translates to a 99% chance, meaning it is seen as a near certainty. In practical terms, the market is saying it would be a major shock if all six clubs—Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur—secured a European spot for the 2026-27 season.

Why the Market Sees It This Way

This high probability is based on recent history and the structure of European qualification. Only a limited number of English clubs can qualify. For the 2025-26 season, England has eight European spots. While that number is high, it is not exclusively reserved for the traditional "Big Six." Other strong clubs like Aston Villa, Newcastle United, and West Ham United are consistently competing for those places.

Last season, Chelsea finished outside the European places. This shows it can and does happen. The Premier League is increasingly competitive, and the financial rewards of European football mean the race for these spots is intense every year. The market is essentially betting that in a 20-team league with several ambitious clubs, at least one of the six will be the odd one out.

Key Dates and Events to Watch

The final outcome will be decided on the last day of the Premier League season, which is scheduled for May 25, 2025. The league table at that moment determines qualification. Major shifts in the odds could happen if one of these clubs suffers a dramatic loss of form, a key injury to a star player, or is penalized with a points deduction. Watching the race for 5th through 8th place in the spring will be the clearest indicator of which club is most at risk.

How Reliable Are These Predictions?

Prediction markets have a solid track record for forecasting season-long sports outcomes, as they continuously incorporate new information like match results and injuries. For a question like this, which is based on a clear league table result, markets are typically reliable. The main limitation is the long time horizon. An unexpected event, like a surprise takeover or a major managerial change, could alter a club's trajectory and shift the odds, though the current 99% probability suggests traders see very little room for such a turnaround.