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GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIClimate and Weather

Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?

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Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?

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6 markets tracked

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	37%
Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	37%
Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	14%
Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	7%
Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will the maximum temperature be <64° on Jul 10, 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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37%

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About This Event

On Jul 10, 2026 If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, August 24, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?
**Category:** Climate and Weather | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Jul 10, 2026

If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is X than Y fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report, Daily, then the market resolves to Yes. Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=mtr, navigating to the "Observed Weather" tab, and choosing the location "San Francisco Airport" with Daily Climate Report selected. Please use the latest version of the data for the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is greater than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.w"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the maximum temperature be <64° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 17, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIClimate and Weather

Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?

Volume$0.00

Markets6

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KALSHI

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is between 68-69° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.wea

KALSHI

Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 36.5¢No 63.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is between 66-67° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.wea

KALSHI

Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is between 64-65° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.wea

KALSHI

Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is between 70-71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.wea

KALSHI

Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIClimate

Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?

If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco for Jul 10, 2026, is greater than 71° fahrenheit according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Data for CLISFO can be found by clicking the following URL: https://www.w

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/pc-Mwk" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?"></iframe>

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Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

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Events (1)

Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?

Markets (6)

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?

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Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Highest temperature in San Francisco on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 68-69° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 66-67° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be 70-71° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?

Will the maximum temperature be >71° on Jul 10, 2026?

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